No Shit Sherlock!!!!

I AM ENRAGED!  I have just watched the PM come on TV at 8pm on the 4th January 2021 to say that the whole of the country is to go into stage 5 - effectively full lockdown because of the continued growth in Coronavirus and the fact that the NHS is about to implode.   

Sorry this is not going to be a fun read today but here's specifically why I'm so angry.

The PM did a Covid update today which included an important piece of information that has been overlooked, not understood, ignored, lost or buried in a mountain of crap custard pies.  The CLOWNS have missed it for too long but it is FINALLY recognised and in the PM's statement today.  There is now recognition that:

CHILDREN [THROUGH SCHOOLS] ARE THE VECTORS [CARRIERS] OF INFECTION!  

Oh boy, a core policy decision was made, to keep schools open at all costs without understanding the RISK of that action.  Yes yes yes sending kiddies to school is a good thing and critical for their education and futures but really doesn't anyone in Government understand the behavious of children and teenagers when they are together???  It's like watching a world full of RATS having an orgy.  Without the sex of course in the primary schools.  There is no way to keep children apart when not in the classroom.  It's even shown on TV.  Pictures of kids playing at break time, of huddling together on the way home. Fer ffffff sake!!

WE HAVE OVER 2.5 MILLION INFECTED AND OVER 75 THOUSAND DEAD (ALMOST A FULL WEMBLEY) AND IT HAS TAKEN UNTIL NOW TO MAKE THAT CONCLUSION.  NO SHIT SHERLOCK!!!!

Calm down Wayne, calm down.    

I've been saying through this blog and in other ways and to other folk that I always thought this is where a major part of the problem was with increases in transmission of the disease.  I saw it in the rough data.  I understood cause and effect of the decisions that the Government was taking.  But saw this too.  Only me?  Surely not!  There must be thousands of folk employed and paid millions for data analysis and none of them could see this in the data and realise the cause is in a child's and young adults's socialistic behaviours?  Incredulous!  Government is truly full of self centred CLOWNS!!!!

The following graph paints a thousand words. 

Let me say them.  This is the base data taken from the GOV web site for Infections and Deaths.  It only took me 5 minutes to pull this together.

My history at BT involved a lot of data analysis to drive significant service improvment.  Producing numerous graphs to help people understand what was happening and help me to explain why services were working the way they were (or more likely why they were not). 

Follow the graph from left to right.  The left hand axis (for the blue line) is the daily count of positive covid tests.  The right hand axis (the red line) sadly is the deaths.

The blue line clearly shows how poor our testing regime was at the start.  As stated by the SAGE boys and the Government the rate of infections in the UK was massive.  R number over 3.5.  Moreso seen in the sudden and high spike in deaths at the end of March onwards.  So at:

Point 1 - March 23rd.  A reactive step was taken by the Government.  Boris told people to stay at home to save the NHS and save LIVES.  The whole country was put into lockdown.  

I'll let you figure out why the devolved nations want to do their own thing cos this should never have been something where actions diverged.  It just confuses people and messes up the data you see?

Point 2 - Late June / Early July.  Restrictions ease.  Super Saturday declared!  We slowly came out of lockdown.  

People went back to work.  Transport started again - much reduced but it was there.  Eat out to help out, remember?  Everything was done to try to get the economy running again and even whilst doing this the infections continued to tumble.  But importantly the schools did not go back.  

Point 3 - The start of September.  Schoolchildren start to go back to school and infections again start to grow.  University students went back to their shagging dorms.  

This was well in advance of the 'bad weather' - a winter phenomenon that was expected to cause an increase again.  And a number of university towns, especially the local council areas that contained a university, had a sudden increase in COVID infections.  Fulford here in York went a horrible puce colour.  That's probably quite a normal look for the university if we had bothered to track STD's historically.

I do recall a rather nice autumn in our part of the world so surely not weather related.  Nothing else had significantly changed cept the kids went back to school.  Started to mix and bring the bug home.  And up the infections went.  As expected the death toll rose, normally lagging the increase in infections by 3-4 weeks.  That's 1 week to get infected, a further week to need hospitalisation and the final sad weeks with the loss of a precious life.  

Point 4 - And to keep the memory test going - Remember Remember the 5th of November?  Another lockdown commences.  

This time though the kids continue to go to school.  And importantly the UNIVERSITIES remain open with the non-adults locked away who complained a lot about having to live at 'HMP Manchester' university etc. 

The CLOWNS have had a field day to this point with their pies, slinging them at each other across Parliament.  Zoom screens are smothered.  The idiots don't realise that slapping a pie against the computer monitor has no effect other than buggering up their self centred propaganda homework for the rest of the day.   They scream at each other about how much better their pies taste and how much more preferable it would be if everyone had a piece of theirs!  But notice how the infection and the significantly better indicator - the death rate - did not reduce as effectively as it did during the first lockdown.  Whilst some behaviours had changed I maintain that the kids were still at school and so bringing the infection home to mum and dad and uncle and auntie and granny and grandad.

Point 5 - 2nd of December.  The lockdown is lifted for Christmas.  And as expected infections start to slowly rise again.  

What is it with human beings?  This intolerable need to socialise at all costs.  Probably fed up now with playing the lockdown game they again start to mix.  I was gobsmacked the other day walking past a hairdressers.  The not so young lass doing the cutting was gabbing away chopping merrily with no face covering.  Her face shield was jauntily perched on her head like an invisible hat.  Oh dear.  

Point 6 - Mid December - Them there petulant asymptomatic 'experiential' university students who have been locked away from home since September are released! 

Somehow they managed to fit the shagging and socialising in (lock students up in dormitories and????.. yep..) and are then released from their petri dishes.  They spread the word to mum and dad and uncle and auntie and granny and grandad just how crap a term it has been.  At the same time they spread the virus back to mum n dad n uncle and... - you get my drift.  It's Christmas too so a double whammy with social mixing.  And so up it suddenly flies!  

It was like putting COVID on steroids.  An invisible unwanted shot of COVID in the arm of mum and dad and ... from them there selfless students.  Someone somewhere in the clown's big top may say 'No, Wayne. You are wrong.  It's the new variant of Corona virus that's caused the increase'.  Yes, I agree that has not helped but simply a virus moves from person to person when people mix - NOT just because it is more virulent as inferred by the clown parliamentarians!  

Another bit of data perhaps supports this observation.  Up to the opening of the university flood gates York had been pretty green with infection rates in the 70 per 100,000 range.  Under control.  The asymptomatic university student population lands back home and BANG!  We're now at over 1000 per 100,000.  Especially in the estates likely to have supplied the moaning hard done to students to the University COVID factories in the first place.  Tang Hall, a council estate of old, remains green.  Hmmmm? 

Where is the data on transmissibility?  What are the most probably routes for spreading the virus?  I'm desperate to know.  Don't try to kid me that nobody knows.  I cannot find the data.  But it is important data to understand.  Cause and Effect.  Event triggers etc..  

For example the government could have said 'the virus is predominantly spread, specifically and asymptomatically, within schools and between people in close proximity on aircraft and meat packing plants.  Also we see a link between people who have attended illegal parties.'  And then they / we know what not to do / what to stop / what to ban.  There is no guess work and no debate driven by the media into our homes over silly viewer questions like 'can I go to the shop'?  Or 'can I use the bus to go to work'?  Tell us specifically HOW it is being spread for Gods sake!

I have to stop now.  It's getting late.  But do you agree schools have always been part of the problem?  Have the Government been complacent?  Or have they actively done a risk assessment which looked at the impact on education vs the impact on mum and dad and ..?  1000 people doing data and social and psychological analysis and still miss this?  I surely hope not.  

I may write some more to reflect what I think after I've slept on this, either I'll update this blog entry or add an epilogue.  

I'll let you know. 

Truly sad today...